We are witnessing an open election season in many Western democracies, and their outcomes are likely to determine the course of international politics in the coming decade. Along with the United States of America; European countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Austria, and Romania are set to elect new leaders. I take a look at what’s at stake in these countries.
Inevitable Tories defeat
The Conservative Party, also popularly called the Tories, in the United Kingdom suffered a crushing defeat on expected lines. Having led the country from 2010 till 2024, the Conservative Party lost the 2024 general elections which concluded on 4th July. But it was the sheer scale of loss that made headlines. Led by Rishi Sunak, Conservatives were limited to mere 121 seats, while the Labour Party secured 411 seats- a landslide victory. Keir Starmer signed in as the new Prime Minister of Great Britain on Friday.
But Great Britain’s vote has been termed as anti-conservative than pro-labour. Starmer will have a difficult job of inheriting a slouching economy with one of the lowest investments, negative real-income growth, high national debt, et cetera. The room for getting creative is low with a need for higher fiscal discipline. But under Labour, London might signal increasing collaboration with European partners on a variety of issues, such as trade, jointness in defense and a coherent Russia policy. National effort is expected to strengthen home-finance (one of Starmer’s top election planks), reforming contracts to strengthen worker rights, green energy projects, etc.
Europe’s Hard Right Turn
The outcome of the recently held elections to the European Parliament has created considerable flutter about the rise of the Far Right in the 27-member bloc of the European Union. Ursula Von der Leyen of the European People’s Party (EPP) continues to lead for the second term with the Center-Right EPP being the single largest party with 25% of seats in the 720 strong parliament. But the leading progressive coalition will face pressure from the Far Right parties including Identity and Democracy (ID) led by Marine Le Pen of France and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) associated with Giorgia Meloni of Italy. Together they garnered approximately 18 percent of total seats.
France and Germany, the heavyweights in European politics, felt massive pressures on the domestic front. Both the ruling parties (Renaissance and Social Democratic Party respectively) slid considerably in the wake of extreme Right surge. President Emmanuel Macron proceeded to dissolve the Parliament to call a snap election which is currently underway. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a turbulent period going forward after his party faltered at the third place behind conservative and far-right parties. Politico reported that Scholz’s coalition, beset by infighting, is preparing for an election by next summer.
Inevitable Far Right in Paris
Since 2017, Emmanuel Macron has served as French President forming a centrist alliance with his own Renaissance party in power. While his term has seen massive protests on both economic and social issues, a serious challenge by the far-Right was underestimated earlier. The just-concluded European Parliament elections witnessed the rise of the Right parties who trounced Macron’s alliance. Surprisingly, President Macron dissolved the lower house of the French Parliament on 9th June, and called for snap elections. This gamble, as termed by analysts, is withering with the decent performance of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Previously National Front) party.
Tomorrow, the French voters will decide who will rule over the next half of the decade. If Marine Le Pen is successful in securing a majority, she will alter French politics forever. For starters, Le Pen is not supportive of sending French arms and armament to Ukraine. The stance has led to Russia-backed media cheering for her National Rally party. Multiculturalism, Euro-integration and an accommodative stance to immigrants will take a backseat. A majority in the parliament will not only bring the first Far-Right French government since the second World War, it will reduce the tempering of Le Pen’s policies.
Austria’s Right makes noise
Germany’s neighbour, Austria is set to hold its national elections on 29th September and key changes are expected this time. The current government is led by President Alexander Van Der Bellen (VDB) and chancellor Karl Nehammer who leads the centrist People’s Party. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) led by Herbert Kickl has steadily captured the attention of the electorate while the current government struggles to contain high inflation. In the elections to the European Parliament, FPO defeated the centrist parties. Far-Right gain is likely with the green climate sentiment faltering exceedingly in the country.
Liberal economic policies and anti-immigrant sentiment dominate the far right agenda in Austria. A widely expected upset will result in a stiffening of the policies on refugees, pushback to green policies and revision of engagement with Russia. Kickl’s persistent louding of Hungary’s Victor Orban is a testament to the direction of his policies. Victor Orban is considered an outlier in the European Union due to his soft stance on Putin despite the lasting offensive on Ukraine.
Wait and Watch for Romania
Along the lines of other European countries, Romania is also witnessing a rise in the voting share of the Far Right. The country’s Presidential election was delayed, and is now scheduled to be organized in December. Romania’s current political landscape is dominated by the centrist coalition partners namely, Partidul Național Liberal and Partidul Social Democrat. Alliance for Unity of Romanians (AUR) was conceived only in 2019 but the populist conservative party has grown famous among the electorate giving rise to prospects of difficult government formation in the upcoming election.
Similar to other European countries, the AUR captured the broad discontent during the Covid period, costly green switch led by the EU-bloc and inflationary economy due to costly fuel after the Ukraine-Russia war. Unlike Western European powers, countries belonging to Eastern Europe have long complained about unfair economic policies under the EU. AUR contends that green policies and broader integration is not in favour of Eastern Europe.
Tbilisi heading nowhere
Georgia, a country sandwiched between Russia and Turkey, was given candidature to join the EU bloc last November. But recent developments have created doubts over its membership at all. Georgia is set to vote in the upcoming months, and the ruling Georgian Dream party has been accused by multiple countries of using violent methods against peaceful protestors. At the top of the contentious issues lies a national bill that terms all foreign-funded Non-Government Organizations (NGO) and others as foreign-backed entities/agents. This new rule has led to considerable tensions with Western democracies which have red-flagged it as contradictory to EU and NATO requirements. Another such bill has been cited as anti-LGBTQ as it intends to censor all references to the minority community from popular discourse. While Georgian Dream has been ruling over the country since 2012, surveys showed that most Georgians are hopeful of EU membership. For this reason, the October election will be watched carefully by observers.
The Wild West
While historically, the Wild West was the Western part of the United States. In the current context, I hold the United States of America as the wild-west of ‘The West.’ The country is in the midst of an election campaign that has pitched incumbent President Joe Biden against previous President Donald Trump. Although elections are scheduled on 5th November, the Democrats are debating a change in candidature at the last moment. But policy alignment is likely even if Joe Biden is replaced, so we can stick to his stance on foreign policies.
Both leaders (Biden and Trump) have differing views on the Russia-Ukraine War, global trade position, Climate issues, Israel-Palestine issue, China and beyond. The US elections remain the single-most consequential election of all time. Countries like China, Israel, NATO members, Muslim states, Philippines, etc have a direct stake in the contours of US foreign policy as Washington remains a top investment and trade partner, highest military spender as well as foreign aid provider, and immigration destination. I leave the analysis of the US elections to a separate article.
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